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Update 1:

March 19, 2011

A very amused fastbacker hath sent notice of a Reuters report re:

A U.S. judge on Friday temporarily blocked a controversial new law in Wisconsin that strips public employee unions of key collective bargaining rights.

Message adds: — Cheerup for Ali — that’s Egyptian T. Ali who I understand responded openly and admirably to the faithful at kimalot’s insistent prodding on air this morning.

ps: gottabe what fair journalism is all about these days — exposition — the journo a player or perhaps facilitator in the communication business. Not, repeat NOT, opponent, or partisan, or worse..

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March 19, 2011

With the local plea for back-2-back – do I correctly presume horizontal ? – co-existence 🙂 allow an in-kind or off-the-feet contribution.

Not that its words are so very significant — pix 2 caption tells the tale – but without them I wouldn’t be able to say how cheery the Ibaraki attribution there makes me..

Of course, KR’s headline delivers the goods, so to speak, and who am I to detract from that ? The lass could not have known of my particular concern.. especially troubled after seeing a terrifying tsunami shot said to have taken place there. Yes, now I suspect a mis-attributrion. Tho I’m less sure re Mito.

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March 17, 2011

Das authored “Traders, Guns and Money:” Thus, guest writing at NC makes for some insight on sovereign risk/s, now compounded with significant uncertainty* viz a viz Japan’s disaster and destruction parameters of NOW times.

[* Some might recall Keynes’s distinction between uncertainty and risk — the former being or arising from unknowns, the latter more certain and knowledge-based.. I’ll finish this particular blog later with what appears an already likely global pre-occupation to highlight this relevance ]

Insightful then, Das writes:—

To the extent that savings are now redirected directly or indirectly (through the purchase of Japanese government bonds) towards reconstruction, these funds will not be available to finance foreign borrowers. This contracts the pool of global capital available and its cost.

Methinks ahead of the Ratings Agency curve/s, much of their talk recently relating to US muni – states, towns, etc – issue arising from Congress’ budget deadlock.. which is to say there is the much and more immediate plays at home to be concerned about.

Just as pointedly Das adds:— (my emphases)

Policies adopted to deal with crisis and reconstruction may destabilise currency markets. In a world of low growth, countries have used currency values as a means of gaining competitive advantage. To the extent that changes in capital flows affect currency values, attempts by individual nations to cheapen their currencies will increase volatility and affect growth.

Capital flows in and about Japan the third largest economy would add strength to this argument. We might also anticipate a cut in its world aid donor program not to mention its Japanese Co-op program, ADB, IMF, World Bank. Retrenchment will hurt recipients.

Deutsche Bank’s Dan Brebner was through today with the certainty of Fukushimas’ “write-off” without mention other likely global energy impedance outcomes. And what that would mean for power-inspired growth. Risk scenarios might therefore start from a low expectations baseline.

So.. to wrap this.. one huge ramification of utter disaster and destruction process will be the speed and direction of actual radiation plumes around and about the planet..

One very good reason for wishing the brave souls able and willing fight this menace at source every success in their endeavors to bring it under control..

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And the Word is..

March 15, 2011


Said in the manner of Richard Gray playing Abwehr Grupen in the GTE prior to introducing senior allied officer James Donald to his Colonel, the Camp Kommandant..

“And the word is.. regrouping”.

And why, you may well ask.. Answer: so far as I can tell, events, positions and their complexities have taken their toll.

Added to which further news at the weekend in kiwiland of a guy being a “new broom” in circumstances he may formerly have considered desirable. Unfortunately, such a custom has fallen foul of another definition — that a broom is a cow’s tool and plays swish-swish at the flies heraldry attendent one’s rear end.

Quite fitting I thought in regards to the utterer. At the time.

Still, tis not I who doth dwell upon the prevalent curiosities, tis U know who.

PS: before taking off for a stroll the other day Tom asked me to mention that “anything… just anything really!” does not fit his purview either.

Could this not be the most germane component in his R-word.. we shall see.

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Japan: Useful news pipe..

March 12, 2011

The rachmanblog @ FT is almost real timing inputs, contribs, links and vital coverage of the Japan quake, foreshocks, aftershocks, and other consequences – tsunami, volcanics, nuclears..

Being FT also financial and economic impacts along with consequences post yen resilience ( yes it is, even if at temporary Nikkei expense ).

ChCh’s experience is getting a kind of benchmark treatment by this guys; in my humble opinion that aspect can cut both ways, Saving of course the obvious differences in scale between NZ and Japan.

H/t: NC

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Several Good Indicators..

March 8, 2011


I heard the figure of 700mm uplift from – was it Mr. Hopkins ? – this morning. By lunchtime it was stated again in cms (eg 7cms). but from the Alos shots the peak ground motion ( uplift ) is lower at circa 500mm.

Looks likely thus ( to me at anyrate ) how a worst case scenario (wcs) could be potted from uplift for the city – ie CBD – at around Richter 8.0.. and comprise mainly uplift. Thus structured entities with any real chance of sustainability would forthwith be constructed low-rise, not densely so, and rely mostly upon reinforced vertical strength. Flexing and flexibility coming from either new designed-for-purpose materials over smaller spaces (floors) or per the postmodern concept of wood and its laminates. Crucial to such construction methods, however, would be FIXINGS. That is to say, fixing materials that either DO or DON’T DEFORM. The former might be base isolators wherein force is taken up or absorbed by force-handling components, the latter exampled by stretch and flex attributes..

Gotta go.. bin called…

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Connection… ?

March 7, 2011

Sadly I cannot now recall where I read about unusually high water levels in Saltwater Creek on State Highway 1 in Canterbury on or about 23 February.. having made the observation the questions – rains, tides etc – that might have explained this were considered and discounted.. the final question remaining open so to say..

Well, one possibility has arisen and my congratulations to this website for its continuing interest in matters environment and climate.. recommended lookup and links.. both broadening kiwi minds and inviting direct/specific answers to their likely present and future problems..

ps: occasional co-blogger John ventures opinion that this topic would very adequately example what RNZ’s Simon Dickinson earlier termed “breaking news” in his signature promo 🙂

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